Spring Break
Scientists publish research, examine effects of climate changes on water levels
Betsy Cohen
Issue date: 2/10/09 Section: News
02/10/10 - A recent study on the Great Lakes revealed that lake levels are susceptible to climate change, putting the economy at further risk.
The study was led by professor John King from the University of Rhode Island Graduate School of Oceanography and Michael Lewis, a visiting URI scientist working for the Geological Survey of Canada. Their study was published in December's issue of Eos, a science journal.
Prior to their scientific study, the general belief was that the high and low levels of the lake were due to glaciers advancing and retreating within the watershed of the Great Lakes. Their research focused on a period approximately 7,000 to 8,000 years ago.
"We came to the conclusion that the ice was already pretty far out of the watershed," King said. "The only way the lake levels could have gone down was due to a dryer climate than what we have now."
According to King, a big climate change is predicted to occur within the next 100 years. A drier climate will result in the lake levels falling below their overflow level.
Rivers connecting the Great Lakes will dry up, including Niagara Falls. The connection to the St. Lawrence Seaway will cease to exist, and Quebec, Montreal, Toronto, Chicago, Milwaukee and Cleveland will be affected.
"There's a fair amount of industry still in these areas and the main means of transportation is probably large ships on the Great Lakes," King said.
According to King, the economy based off the Great Lakes accounts for 25 percent of Canada's economy and about 15 percent of the United State's economy.
"Every inch or two that the lake level drops, you have to decrease the load by enough to lose tens of thousands of dollars to hundreds of thousands of dollars on every trip you make," King said. "If you have big changes, it pretty rapidly becomes non-economic to use big ships to transport things on the Great Lakes."
King pointed out that 80-90 percent of world commerce is "containerized stuff" transported by ships.
The study was led by professor John King from the University of Rhode Island Graduate School of Oceanography and Michael Lewis, a visiting URI scientist working for the Geological Survey of Canada. Their study was published in December's issue of Eos, a science journal.
Prior to their scientific study, the general belief was that the high and low levels of the lake were due to glaciers advancing and retreating within the watershed of the Great Lakes. Their research focused on a period approximately 7,000 to 8,000 years ago.
"We came to the conclusion that the ice was already pretty far out of the watershed," King said. "The only way the lake levels could have gone down was due to a dryer climate than what we have now."
According to King, a big climate change is predicted to occur within the next 100 years. A drier climate will result in the lake levels falling below their overflow level.
Rivers connecting the Great Lakes will dry up, including Niagara Falls. The connection to the St. Lawrence Seaway will cease to exist, and Quebec, Montreal, Toronto, Chicago, Milwaukee and Cleveland will be affected.
"There's a fair amount of industry still in these areas and the main means of transportation is probably large ships on the Great Lakes," King said.
According to King, the economy based off the Great Lakes accounts for 25 percent of Canada's economy and about 15 percent of the United State's economy.
"Every inch or two that the lake level drops, you have to decrease the load by enough to lose tens of thousands of dollars to hundreds of thousands of dollars on every trip you make," King said. "If you have big changes, it pretty rapidly becomes non-economic to use big ships to transport things on the Great Lakes."
King pointed out that 80-90 percent of world commerce is "containerized stuff" transported by ships.
